Strategy Lab · Independent Validation

PEAD Event Reaction

The scientific evidence behind the research product—presented without exposing prospective answers.

Research Candidate

Research Evidence

312 observations

Frozen 2R / 10-bar PEAD event-reaction specification.

Historical gates passed

Historical N312

Profit Factor1.371

Mean R0.142R

Max Drawdown10.50R

Validation Pipeline

One evidence bank at a time

✓

Historical Research312 completed observations

Complete

✓

RobustnessFrozen sensitivity and integrity gates

Passed

✓

N ≥ 300Minimum evidence boundary crossed

Passed

⚠

Holdout ATechnical invalidation—no valid blind result

Invalidated

●

2026 Prospective ValidationOutcome answers withheld during collection

Active · Sealed

○

2027 Holdout BUntouched independent evidence bank

Frozen / Unread

⌾

Alert ReviewNo eligibility before Holdout B

Locked

Active Sealed

2026 Prospective Replication

Started 2026-08-11. Outcome metrics remain hidden until the frozen evaluation protocol permits analysis.

Candidate DetailsRestricted

Outcome MetricsSealed

Mean / PF / Win RateNot serialized

Holdout BFrozen / Unread

Technical Invalidation

Holdout A

Technical invalidation — no valid blind result was produced.

It cannot be rerun and counts as neither a strategy pass nor a strategy failure.

Technical Details

Historical distribution

Median R0.167R

Target / Stop / Time46 / 108 / 158

Ambiguous0

Cost stress

1.5×: 0.099R mean · PF 1.256
2×: 0.059R mean · PF 1.152

Research provenance

Strategy hash: c7ee50906a1ef7ba61db09ea1b0e145c7dc855a05c12ff9e59dde7c29d9621d9
Policy checksum: 394a22530453476fabc2b334e655df9fb247fc86fd88c703e608f0972dd62286
2026 manifest: 6c93f143e0c916af21c1145a34031204d3be508aa792ba1373723ff5c2e7a2eb
2026 activation: 2d72473e4309a6b282931b26163fed3d86a130763ffa2380d0fcfdd8640930c5

Guardrails

AlertsOFF

Live ExecutionOFF

Broker ExecutionOFF

Production Ml DecisioningOFF

Normal Paper Trade GenerationOFF